AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations on climate change impact and adaptation for global wheat


  • Bing Liu Nanjing Agricultural University
  • Pierre Martre
  • Frank Ewert
  • Heidi Webber
  • Katharina Waha
  • Peter J. Thorburn
  • Alex C. Ruane
  • Pramod K. Aggarwal
  • Mukhtar Ahmed
  • Juraj Balkovič
  • Bruno Basso
  • Christian Biernath
  • Marco Bindi
  • Davide Cammarano
  • Weixing Cao
  • Andy J. Challinor
  • Giacomo De Sanctis
  • Benjamin Dumont
  • Mónica Espadafor
  • Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
  • Elias Fereres
  • Roberto Ferrise
  • Margarita Garcia-Vila
  • Sebastian Gayler
  • Yujing Gao
  • Heidi Horan
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom
  • Roberto C. Izaurralde
  • Mohamed Jabloun
  • Curtis D. Jones
  • Belay T. Kassie
  • Kurt C. Kersebaum
  • Christian Klein
  • Ann-Kristin Koehler
  • Andrea Maiorano
  • Sara Minoli
  • Manuel Montesino San Martin
  • Christoph Müller
  • Soora Naresh Kumar
  • Claas Nendel
  • Garry J. O’Leary
  • Jørgen Eivind Olesen
  • Taru Palosuo
  • John R. Porter
  • Eckart Priesack
  • Dominique Ripoche
  • Reimund P. Rötter
  • Mikhail A. Semenov
  • Claudio Stöckle
  • Pierre Stratonovitch
  • Thilo Streck
  • Iwan Supit
  • Fulu Tao
  • Marijn Van der Velde
  • Enli Wang
  • Joost Wolf
  • Liujun Xiao
  • Zhao Zhang
  • Zhigan Zhao
  • Yan Zhu
  • Senthold Asseng



The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo ( Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.